Daily Archives: December 3, 2022

The impacts of global warming have become more frequent and ferocious

The decision at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, to establish a fund to help developing countries address loss and damage from the adverse impacts of climate change was a momentous signal of hope for humanity and the planet.

The impacts of global warming have become more frequent and ferocious. Those who have contributed the least to rising temperatures are suffering the most. For 30 years, the most vulnerable countries have pressed for a fund through which those who have contributed the most to global carbon emissions can help the vulnerable countries recover from climate disasters and other consequences of climate change — rising sea levels, droughts, hurricanes and floods.

As the current chair of the Group of 77 and China — a coalition of developing countries — I proposed the discussion on a loss and damage financing facility in June in the preparations for COP27. We faced familiar resistance to placing the issue on the conference agenda.

The epic floods in Pakistan this year, however, brutally confirmed the growing magnitude of climate disasters: with thousands of people killed or injured; millions displaced; 13,000 kilometers of roads, two million homes, 500 bridges and five million acres of crops destroyed; and one-third of the country under water. My home province of Sindh has been the most devastated. It was only after seeing first-hand the scale of loss and damage, realising there was no international financial mechanism to address disasters of this scale, has driven home the concept of loss and damage.

This monumental disaster, along with simultaneous floods in Nigeria, drought in the Horn of Africa and hurricanes in the Pacific and the Caribbean reinforced the determination of developing countries to secure climate justice. Pakistan led developing countries in the subsequent negotiations at COP27 to press for creating the fund. We commend the G77’s solidarity in pursuing the establishment of such funding arrangements and the fund itself. We appreciate the acceptance of the proposal by developed countries, including those in the European Union as well as the United States.

Developing countries look forward to urgently working in the Transitional Committee of 24 member states to finalise the institutional arrangements, structure, governance and terms of reference of the fund. They must also define the elements of the new plans to identify and expand the sources of financing and ways to ensure coordination and complementarity with current arrangements. Among the most important tasks for the committee is to identify the scale of funding that is needed to meet today’s consequences of climate change.

A first test of climate justice will be the response to Pakistan’s plan for rehabilitation and reconstruction from the flood disaster and building resilience against future catastrophes. This plan will be submitted at a pledging conference to be convened jointly by Pakistan and UN Secretary General António Guterres in January 2023. The World Bank has estimated that Pakistan suffered damage amounting to more than $30 billion and will require at least $16.5 billion for urgent external support.

Since the loss and damage fund has yet to be activated, Pakistan expects that financing for its rehabilitation and reconstruction plan will come from industrial countries and international financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and multilateral development banks. Such support could include debt write-offs, swaps and restructuring; new special-drawing right (SDR) allocations or rechanneling of unused SDRs of the developed countries; direct support for reconstruction projects as well as private investment for projects that can be structured (for example, with blended finance, to be commercially viable). We also expect expressions of solidarity from Pakistan’s friends in the Islamic world and the global South.

Although climate effects have become inevitable due to the 1.1 degree Celsius global warming trend that has occurred over the last 150 years, it remains vital for the world to limit the impacts of climate change as soon as possible.

It is therefore concerning that the adaptation plans of so many developing countries are still not funded. The decision at COP26, in Glasgow, to “at least double” climate finance for adaptation must be immediately fulfilled. At COP27, Pakistan proposed urgent implementation of this decision. We expect that at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates next year, we will be able to establish a mechanism to measure and monitor financial flows for climate adaptation.

Most important, the commitment made since 2009 to mobilise $100 billion annually in climate finance has not been met. Developed countries need to urgently fulfil this commitment and agree to a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) target for larger climate finance from the floor of $100 billion by COP28.

Of course, the ultimate common goal is to halt global warming and avoid the tipping points that climate scientists have been predicting will propel a global catastrophe. However, the onus to ensure that global temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees is mainly left to industrial countries, which have consumed two-thirds of the so-called “carbon budget” over the past 150 years. The remaining one-third of the budget is what developing countries will need to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Unfortunately, it was evident at COP27 that industrial countries have not implemented the mitigation commitments they agreed on in Glasgow and were reluctant to agree again to a larger, faster path to reduce emissions and keep the 1.5 degrees target alive.

As Pakistan ends its tenure as chair of the Group of 77 and China this year, we will make a final push to advance the SDGs and climate goals at a ministerial conference of developing countries in New York City in mid-December. We hope the meeting will set the agenda that the global South will promote at the SDG summit and COP28 next year. (A version of this article originally appeared in ‘China Daily’).

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International Day of Disabilities is an isolated projection that can’t fuel the sensitisation required for inclusivity

Third day of December! A universally sanctioned day exclusively reserved for me to whine about my deficiencies or to boast my accomplishments!

The stage is all set to behold a mesmerising performance; the charged-up audience eagerly awaits the curtains to be lifted. I, too, anxiously looking forward to showcase my talent and skills. Already engulfed by the round of applause and deafening cheers, my jubilance continues to mount.

Lights, camera, action!

Thus, the wait is over, the golden moment arrives! Amidst the standing ovation, I take to the stage. Keeping all my anxieties and nervousness apart, I begin to exhibit my heroic feats, with all my zeal and wholeheartedness. The unique feeling of a spellbound audience, relishing every move of mine proved immensely rewarding.

At last, the curtains were announced to be drawn. I could sense my success in creating an electrifying atmosphere, judging through the appreciative conversations and delightful whispers of ecstatic spectators.

Gradually, as the glorifying chants and merriness subsided, shadows of silence seized the emptiness around me. This was the moment when I began to evaluate the magnitude and impact my spectacle has managed to create. Instantaneously, a disconcerting thought sprung into my mind. An inner voice grilled my conscience: have I attained my ultimate goal? For how long would these spectators be able to retain my marvel in their memories? Whether my triumph is sufficient for molding their standardised dispositions? Is pleasing masses by glorifying my capabilities enough to draw social empathy? Whether my demands of reverence and emancipation would be met by gathering a massive crowd to publicise my novelty on a specified venue for a fixed duration?

The above illustration depicts a conventional practice of annual observance of International Day of Disabilities, sanctioned by the United Nations in order to exhibit the obscure role of this particularly marginalised fragment and to create awareness regarding their respective rights and special needs on micro level globally.

Recognizant of solemnness of this very occasion, I am at variance with this conventional approach to the extent of total reliance upon a designated day. In my opinion, such kind of isolated projection can in no way fuel the requisite sensitisation which is essential constituent of an inclusive society. My conception of being embraced by the society as its elemental part cannot be attained through glorifying exceptional traits of any vulnerable section, but by adopting viable frameworks capable of converging heterogeneous component into a single unit.

Let’s ask ourselves: could the agenda of embracement be fulfilled by merely highlighting lives of differently enabled persons and running awareness campaigns on an assigned day, or could it be procured through practical application of the concept of togetherness?

As a person possessed of impairment, my outright preference is to be embraced in the form of casual relationships within the society, be they acquaints or strangers, instead of people interacting with me for the sake of conveying their appreciation of my endurance or fortitude. I require inclusive academic environment than being confined in special educational institutions; I don’t need charity but employment opportunities; I don’t wish to be secluded on pretext of quota system and be denied of my right of merit.

In essence, I am not desirous of assuming the stature of a celebrity who enjoys a huge fan-following; instead, my content lies in becoming a companion who is able to assist and seek favours on cordial terms.

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Everyone tries to determine how the relationship between parents and children might develop into an ideal one when it comes to family life.

Parents want their children to be well-behaved and disciplined adults with strong moral principles. But it is not a simple task. It is crucial to understand that the parent-child relationship is a two-way street. And parents and their children need to focus on their roles.

When this collaboration is not carried out responsibly, it has a terrible effect on future generations. Parenthood comes with a lot of responsibility.

Parents lead by example and guide their children through their actions. Even though many parents believe that fighting in private has little impact on their children, this is not entirely true. Parent-child disputes, violence, and other negative behaviour have a negative impact on kids. Not only do these factors impair children’s physical and mental development, but they also lead to emotional and behavioural issues in them. They can hear and feel violence even if they can’t see it.

Children’s behaviour is significantly influenced by their parents whose actions have an impact on the behaviour and emotions of their children. Every action controls their emotions.

Emotional control is a sign of aggressiveness and subsequent violence. Research suggests that children’s aggression may be influenced by their parents’ violent behaviour. Children who are exposed to aggressive behaviour on a regular basis may act aggressively towards other kids.

Children who have experienced parental violence have a significant and negative impact on their functioning. These detrimental impacts affect cognitive functioning, psychopathology, social competence, emotional and behavioural functioning, academic accomplishment, and general health.

Parents are usually unable to identify these issues until it is too late. Children tend to either take the blame for the conflict between their parents or look for other ways to express the anger, frustration, or sadness they feel. Low self-esteem, social disengagement, sadness, anxiety, hostility, violence, and delinquency have all been linked to early exposure to violence.

Parents provide a special psychological environment where children can learn how to react to various social situations around them. It is the responsibility of parents to teach their children how to resolve conflicts without resorting to violence. The issue of parental aggression and its detrimental effects on children is obviously one for which there is no easy fix.

Long-term issues for our society include looking beyond the confines of the immediate family, educating both children and adults about nonviolent dispute resolution techniques, and aggressively addressing parent violence.

Parenting styles provide different environments for developing children to acquire different distinctive behaviour. By creating an environment that is supportive, parents can play a crucial role in assisting their children in learning appropriate behaviour. Parents can achieve this by using parenting techniques that allow them and their kids to interact in a way that meets both their emotional and material needs while also offering the rules and a healthy environment needed for the growth of emotional regulation skills.

Avoiding physical violence and abrasive language in a child’s environment is essential to bringing peace and happiness into their existence. When parents are able to identify the issues, they can better understand how to nurture the child’s development while resolving the issues peacefully.

Positive parenting is all about this. Parents have a responsibility to understand their children’s needs and the consequences of their actions. Parents should consciously work to ensure that their parenting approach helps their children develop maturity and self-assurance.

The writer is a project assistant at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad.

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This is the first time in human history that a series of major forums, most recently 40,000 attendees at COP27 in Egypt, met to discuss the ramifications of, and possible solutions to, potential destruction of civilization. Such a massive series, twenty-seven COPs, has never happened before. In that regard, it’s unbelievable that the results have been negative for three decades running. Greenhouse gas emissions continued rising and accelerating, never down. It’s as if they, world leaders or their surrogates, are frozen in time like the well-preserved remains of well-to-do Romans at Pompeii.

Zooming ahead 2,000 years beyond Pompeii and focusing on the results of 30-years of meetings to discuss global warming, then what about 1.5°C above pre-industrial? Will 1.5°C hit soon enough that it impacts today’s generation?

Based upon the opinion of analysts, it looks like the answer is “yes.” One explanation for 1.5C hitting this decade by 2030 is found in the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), which is the same brand that published “Brazilians Should Keep Slashing Their Rainforest” (March 27, 2020) and “What Greta Thunberg Forgets About Climate Change” (July 12, 2020). AIER is a favorite of the Charles Koch Foundation, which donates accordingly. When it comes to libertarian credentials, AIER gets an A-plus grade.

An AIER article by James E. Hanley: The Battle for 1.5 Degrees of Warming Is Already Lost, So What’s Plan B? April 7, 2022, clearly conforms to what several climate analysts are saying about the inevitability of hitting 1.5C. It’s inevitable!

His article does a good job, convincingly, explaining how fossil fuels are embedded in society, really embedded more so than people realize, way more than realized. Frankly, it is difficult to take issue with his facts as presented. Not only does he explain embedded fossil fuels but also: “In more bad policy news for the 1.5 degrees goal, few countries are committing to the necessary policy actions to achieve it. According to Bloomberg research group: ‘No G-20 government has implemented sufficient and concrete policies to match promises … from COP26 in Glasgow last year.” This is also commonly mentioned by climate analysts.

More significantly yet, according to the same article, he proffers the IPCC take on the issue: “Here’s the simple math. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that holding the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires keeping atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 430 ppm. In 2020 we reached 412 ppm, up from 400 in 2015. At that rate of increase, we’ll hit 430 before the end of the decade, and zero-emissions climate pledges aren’t even scheduled to take full effect until 2050, another twenty years later.” As of Nov. 29th Mauna Loa registered daily CO2 at 416.58 ppm.

As a solution, or Plan B if you like, the article suggests environmentalists don’t really have any suggestions, no real Plan B, other than renewables, which according to the article have several serious drawbacks; alternatively, the article suggests solutions such as nuclear power and massive subsidization into research for carbon capture and sequestration, including atmospheric removal.

An altogether different source that’s more palatable to environmentally sensitive circles is Climate Code Red, which recently stated: “The warming trend will reach 1.5°C around 2030, irrespective of any emission reduction initiatives taken in the meantime. This is because short-term warming is largely determined by past emissions, and the inertia in the energy and political systems.” (Source: Over Half of All Fossil Fuels Are Extracted By Just Seven Countries, As World Heads to 3C of Warming, Climate Code Red, November 28, 2022)

In part, the Climate Code Red analysis is based upon a study by H. Damon Matthews, Global Efforts Are Insufficient to Limit Warming to 1.5°C, Science, vol 376, June 23, 2022.

So, what of 1.5C? What happens beyond 1.5C? Obviously, nobody knows because it’s never happened before. However, some clues come from trends at +1.2C, where we’re at today.

“I can say with a high degree of certainty that civilizations can thrive in a 14-degree C world – but nobody can tell at any degree of certainty that we can thrive at (much higher temperatures) because we’ve never been there,” according to Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research while at COP27 in Egypt.” (Source: Explainer: How Close Are We to Passing 1.5 Degrees Celsius of Global Warming? Reuters, Nov. 14, 2022)

1.5C has become a focal point. At the COP27 meetings countries argued over whether the endangered 1.5C goal should be kept or abandoned. Of serious concern, according to IPCC scientists, studies have shown that air pollution particulate matter is holding down global temperatures by 0.3C. This means the planet may effectively “already have 1.5C in the pipeline but is not showing the effects yet,” according to Rockström.

At 1.5C several things happen much worse than what’s already happening at 1.2C. Most prominently, food and water shortages, which are already very serious problems, as international conflict arises over natural resources combined with ultra-extreme weather events, all-in putting the world on edge, a razors edge that has unforgiving political connotations. Just look at politics at only 1.2C. It’s edgy.

The concerns surrounding 1.5C have already started to surface at 1.2C. Over the past 24 months the world has literally been on fire, massively on every continent for the first time ever, especially the methane vulnerable Siberian permafrost (threatening a breakout of runaway global warming thereby making 1.5C look frighteningly ominous), Australia’s biblical megafires, Western US, Paradise, Calif. pop 27,000 burned to the ground like a matchstick; floods have ravaged, torn apart communities, for example Pakistan (1,739 dead) and the massive European floods of ‘21 (125 dead), and the out-of-the-blue massively disruptive Henan, China flood (302 dead, people trapped in Zhengzhou subway cars with water up to their chins); in stark contrast to flooding, droughts shriveled major rivers and commercial waterways, Rhine, Loire, Danube, Po, Yangtze, Mississippi as well as depleting water resources for entire towns and villages in France and Italy (trucking water to towns) and China and elsewhere in the world, like Chile, where suburbs of Santiago, a city rationing water, also trucking water for 450,000 families.

Meanwhile, angry residents take water truck drivers hostage in Northern Mexico (NY Times, Aug.3, 2022). And America’s largest most important reservoir system Lake Mead close to dead pool status. As of November 1st, Lake Mead’s level was 1,046 feet. Dead pool status is 995 feet.

Excerpted: ‘Life Beyond 1.5C’.

Courtesy: Counterpunch.org

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