INDIAN climate scientist Anjal Prakash recommends not using the word `unprecedented`in relation to climate catastrophes in South Asia, `because every time a new precedent is being formed`. It`s probably worthy advice, albeit hard to follow in the context of what Pakistan has lately been undergoing.

In the wake of torrential monsoon rains, preceded by a shocking heatwave and followed by biblical floods, it`s hard to avoid that word, however worthy the sentiment.

It`s important to grasp, though, that as hard as it may be at the moment, there`s almost certainly worse to come.

`The impact of warming on Himalayan glaciers, which are retreating very fast, is much faster than we earlier thought,` says Prakash, one of the lead authors of the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That UN body`s predictions have frequently been dismissed as hyperbole by vested interests, but the greater likelihood is that they are understatements.

Ministers Sherry Rehman and Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari are undoubtedly correct in pointing out that Pakistan contributes about 1pc of the global carbon dioxide emissions that continue to exacerbate global heating decades af ter the earliest prognostications of catastrophe went largely unheeded. It`s less certain, though, whether that ought to be lauded as an achievement or lamented as a symptom of underdevelopment.

Pakistan`s distressing plight is hardly unique. It has been obvious for years that some of the smallest contributors to anthropogenic climate change will be its biggest victims. The Global South, environmentally and economically ravished both by local elites and predatory conglomerates from the Global North, is particularly vulnerable to the impact of nature`s wrath.

Which is not to say that the North is invulnerable. Europe has recently witnessed floods and parts of it are currently in the grip of a drought. Likewise, North America, where just this week the mayor of Jackson in Mississippi called for evacuation as further flooding loomed. Both Europe and North America have also in recent years experienced destructive wildfires. Yet they insist on pursuing the continued use of fossil fuels coal, oil and gas on the basis that renewable resources won`t be capable of satisfying the world`s energy needs for decades to come.

Rarely in history has there been a more potent recipe for disaster. But that won`t restrain the chefs, who have added untold billions to their coffers during the coronavirus pandemic, and are expecting more from the Ukraine war. This is accompanied by `greenwashing`, whereby some of the worst culprits pretend to be doing their best to pro-pel the climate transition towards the goal of net zero emissions. The latter itself is a farce, given it effectively means that the worst polluters can buy `carbon credits` from smaller or more conscientious operators and effectively continue polluting the world.

That does not mean, of course, that the various authorities are not part of the problem. As War on Want director Asad Rehman points out, Pakistan and other states in the developing world … `are stuck in a toxic interplay between a climate catastrophe that they`re not responsible for, increasing hunger, structural inequality and a rigged economic system that has literally lef t the poor hanging by a thread`.

So, what`s the solution? This year`s still unfolding disaster is a warning about what lies ahead, as the Himalayan glaciers melt and extreme weather events become the norm. Pakistan might have a lot to learn from Bangladesh about flood resilience, even though the former East Pakistan, long accustomed to the consequences of extreme weather events not least the 1970 cyclonethat changed its f ate features a notch higher than Pakistan on the scale of nations most vulnerable to climate change.

The rigged economic system that Asad Rehman refers to, however, is within the scope of what could be ame-liorated in Pakistan, alongside the deforestation and the decades-old neglect of Balochistan in particular. The largest province by area has been ravaged for more than half a century and hardly anyone remembers that Balochistan was a reluctant adherent to the Pakistan formula.

It`s amusing, anyhow, to read Bilawal`s comments about how he has never witnessed any previous catastrophe of comparable proportions. He`s probably being honest, and does not clearly recall the occasion a dozen years ago when his dad had to be recalled from a vacation at his properties in Britain and France because of what was happening in the nation of which he was purportedly the president.

At the moment, the best Pakistan can hope for is the massive assistance that has been sought from `friends`. The UAE and Turkey have chipped in, but the UK and US have offered only condolences and tiny amounts of money. Beyond the begging bowl, though, what will ultimately count is what we so far can`t count on: worldwide resistance to climate change. m mahir.dawn @gmail.com

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There couldn’t have been a more apt description that Pakistan is presently facing a catastrophe of ‘biblical proportions’, as described by Becky Anderson, the CNN Managing Director, based in the UAE. It is a crisis that has devastated the lives of millions as the country is literary flooded by torrential rains with no end in sight. Pakistan has faced many a crisis since its inception. The massacre and the influx of millions of refugees at the time of the partition, the two major wars with India and several major natural disasters, especially the 2010 floods, but this one has been exceptionally overwhelming.

Its adverse consequences would be felt over a generation if not more. And for a country as poor and a struggling economy it throws even a greater challenge. In this bleak scenario, one expects that the country would stand united, and leadership at all levels, especially political, would set aside their differences to be taken up later and focus on rehabilitating the people and doing their utmost to reduce their pain and suffering. Regrettably, this is not happening and presenting a sad spectacle of mutual antagonism as the blame game continues. PTI’s primary focus is Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and supporting the efforts of the Punjab government and the PM’s call for a united national effort is largely being ignored. And going by what Imran Khan’s recent statement that his mass rallies and campaign against the government would also continue would be an unnecessary diversion during the national calamity.

This aspect needs to be highlighted and pressure should be built on the major parties to rise to the challenge, be more tolerant and set aside their petty politics at least for a while. It is expected that all those who can afford must contribute generously in flood relief to reputed charity houses while keeping in mind that prices of food and basic necessities have shot up in some cases exponentially due to excessive demand and limited supply. Medics have warned of disease outbreak if preventive measures are not taken. Availability of medicines could be affected if manufacturers remain short of foreign exchange. The floods have laid bare the inadequacies and fragility of the country’s physical infrastructure and above all brought in full focus the rampart poverty of the people.

This is also a reflection and a cruel reminder of how successive governments and the landed aristocracy have neglected the development and well-being of those living in rural areas. They have taken advantage of the patience and resilience of our people. With the global weather pattern changing and showing a highly aggressive trend, the current crisis should be a wake-up call for all of us but more so for the power elite. Business as usual will not work. The immediate and foremost challenge for the government and aid agencies is to save lives and provide the basic necessities. The military personnel as in the past have been in the forefront for rescue and relief. And credit goes to those NGOs and individuals who have been engaged in relief activities, risking their lives against great odds. They are truly an inspirational lot that gives hope and lifts our morale.

The international response has been moderate although the recent deluge may draw attention and shake their conscience provided CNN, BBC and other international channels project the extent of damage, death and destruction forcefully and widely. Nearly half a million people have found refuge in camps and many thousands are still without shelter and waiting for aid to arrive. Although, the rains have stopped, or not that intense for the last two days, but in many areas the after-effects of the torrential rains and flooding still persist and it would take quite a while for people to return to normal life. Our climate minister, Sherry Rehman has warned that Pakistan is on the front line of climate crisis.

This warning needs to be taken seriously. More so as we are least equipped and prepared for this contingency. The rehabilitation of the people will pose a major challenge for the government. Organised community effort and foreign assistance would be necessary. Qatar is providing $2 billion and the UAE $1 billion. It is likely that the Saudi government would also extend assistance to shore up our foreign reserves. But the government would need far more funds and resources to rebuild the devastated infrastructure and the lives of the millions of displaced persons. In the near term there will be shortage of raw materials for textile and other industries and some mills may even lay off their workers. The great challenge would be to revive the economy both in the agricultural and industrial sectors and provide assistance to displaced persons until they are able to fend for themselves.

It is important how the government plans and executes to rebuild the devastated countryside. Economic rehabilitation has to be the foremost priority. Emergence of an economic crisis and existing political dissonance would strengthen TTP and create a favourable environment for terrorist organisations. We are already witnessing that in North and South Waziristan and in Swat the TTP and other militant groups are gaining influence. And what is worse they enjoy the tacit umbrella of the Afghan Taliban Clearly, it would take at least a year or two to counter the fallout of the present crisis.

As brought out earlier Pakistan was already facing an economic crisis and the present climateinduced crisis makes governance even more difficult. On the top of this if the hostility bordering on enmity between the top leadership of the political parties does not yield to sanity and placing interests of the country and its people above their egos, the consequences could be serious. It is possible if people lose confidence in the leadership, democracy and economy would suffer badly. One hopes sanity would prevail and Pakistan’s leadership address the woes of the flood-stricken people and set aside their differences for the greater good of the country and its people.

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